Months of crisis have left France’s budget and leadership hanging in uncertainty.
For the past few months, one of the central topics in France has been the 2025 budget crisis and the country’s growing deficit, which stands at 6% – well above the EU’s 3% threshold. In October 2024, President Emmanuel Macron proposed a budget aimed at addressing the deficit through spending cuts and tax hikes – a budget widely criticized by the opposition and labeled an austerity budget.
However, Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly following the European elections drastically changed the political landscape. His party, which had already lost ground, became a minority in Parliament, making it increasingly difficult to govern and pass legislation – including the annual budget.
Why France Needs an Approved Budget
Without an approved budget, the French government cannot legally collect taxes or finance public spending. To keep the country running, several emergency mechanisms exist:
- Article 49.3 – Allows the government to pass a law without a parliamentary vote, unless a no-confidence motion is successful.
- Provisional Law on Tax Collection – Enables the government to continue collecting taxes based on the previous year’s budget.
- “Les Deuxièmes Provisoires” – An old mechanism permitting the government to operate month-by-month, spending a fraction of the previous year’s budget.
- Article 16 – Grants the President exceptional powers to take any necessary measures in times of crisis, bypassing Parliament entirely.
Michel Barnier’s Short-Lived Leadership: A Failed Budget and Political Turmoil
In December 2024, newly appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier attempted to push the 2025 budget through Article 49.3. However, this triggered a no-confidence motion from both the left-wing and far-right opposition, which succeeded in removing him – bringing his tenure to an abrupt end.
Barnier’s removal deepened the political deadlock, as no clear ruling majority emerged from the fractured Parliament.
François Bayrou’s Gamble: Will 49.3 Work This Time?
On February 3, 2025, François Bayrou, the newly appointed Prime Minister, invoked Article 49.3 – following the example of his predecessor – to push through the 2025 budget without a parliamentary vote.
This move once again led to a no-confidence motion, but this time, the opposition is less unified:
- The Socialist Party (PS), previously part of the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), announced they would not support the motion.
- The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has remained silent, stating they will announce their stance only on the day of the vote.
As a result, the no-confidence motion is unlikely to succeed. Since an absolute majority (289 votes) is required to bring down the government, the Socialists’ abstention means the opposition lacks the numbers to win – even if the far-right votes in favor.
How Did We Get Here? Macron’s High-Stakes Gamble
The Origins of the Crisis
Following the European elections, during which the government party obtained a minority vote, the French President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the French National Assembly – this organ constitutes, together with the Senate, the legislative body and has more power than the Senate in certain areas, particularly in the adoption of laws and the approval of the government.
The dissolution of the National Assembly triggered new legislative elections held on 07/07/24, just a few days before the Paris Olympic Games—one of the greatest national and international events—which generated a lot of questions and concerns.
Why Did Macron Dissolve the National Assembly Right Before the Olympic Games?
Macron’s decision generated many questions and concerns among the public, especially as it happened right before a major international event requiring the utmost stability, attention, and management of the country.
Macron claimed his decision was motivated by the result of the European elections, where the far-right obtained the most votes, 31.37%, against the President’s party, which secured only 14.6%. According to Macron, “When 50% of the French vote for extremes, and you have a relative majority in the Assembly, you cannot tell them, ‘We’re continuing as if nothing happened.’ That is not respecting them, it is not listening to them,” he added. “I want there to be a government capable of taking action to address their anger and their urgent needs.”
Many commented on the President’s decision, defining it as a risky gamble in which, with no assurance of success, he hoped to rally the support of the right-wing Republican Party and the left-wing Socialist Party in the new legislative elections, and together create a coalition against the acknowledged far-right and what he defined as the far-left. The goal would be to restore an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Unexpected Election Results: A Divided Parliament
The first round of the legislative elections took place on the 30th of June 2024 and saw the far-right obtaining the majority vote with a score of 33.35%, followed by the left-wing coalition NFP’s score of 28.28% and the President’s party Ensemble with 21.79%.
These results created an unusual situation where, for the first time in France’s legislative elections, the second round did not feature just two candidates from two opposing parties but three candidates from three different parties: the far-right RN, the left-wing coalition NFP, and the President’s party Ensemble.
The Second Round of Elections and Political Deadlock
For the second round, the President’s bloc finally agreed with the left-wing bloc to prevent the far-right from winning by applying the following strategy: in the electoral districts where the President’s party received more votes in the first round, the left-wing coalition would withdraw to allow the President’s party to run alone against the far-right, thus avoiding a split in votes. Conversely, in districts where the left-wing obtained more votes, the President’s party would withdraw.
On the 7th of July, the second round took place, and the results were different from the first round, with a victory for the left-wing coalition NFP, which obtained the most seats in the National Assembly (182), followed by Ensemble (168 seats) and the far-right RN (143 seats).
New Prime Ministers and Political Struggles
Michel Barnier’s Short-Lived Tenure
Nearly two months after the legislative elections, Macron appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. His appointment was controversial, as Barnier did not come from the left-wing coalition, which had secured a relative majority. However, the President reserves the right to appoint whomever they choose, regardless of the election outcome.
Barnier, a seasoned politician from the right-wing Republican Party, had served as a European Deputy, French Senator, and Minister in multiple fields. He was best known internationally as the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, recognized for his diplomatic and negotiation skills.
However, his nomination was met with strong opposition from Parliament, which saw it as a continuation of Macron’s government, disregarding the election results. A few weeks into his tenure, Barnier attempted to pass the 2025 budget using Article 49.3, triggering a motion of no confidence from both the left-wing coalition and the far-right, leading to his removal.
François Bayrou Takes Over
François Bayrou was then appointed as Barnier’s successor. A 73-year-old politician from the centrist MoDem party, Bayrou had run for President three times and supported Macron in 2017. His appointment was similarly criticized, as he appointed many Macron allies to his cabinet, drawing backlash from both the left and far-right.
Bayrou has also been accused of aligning with the far-right, particularly after controversial remarks regarding immigration. He stated that there is an “increasing feeling of submersion among the French people regarding immigration”. This phrase sparked outrage, particularly from the Socialist Party and left-wing groups, as it has been used by far right politicians like Jean-Marie Lepen. His statement was seen as an attempt to appeal to conservative voters.
The Future of Governance in France: Uncertainty and Political Struggles
The recent political crisis in France has highlighted deep divisions within the government and opposition alike. With no absolute majority and a fragmented Parliament, decision-making has become increasingly challenging. The repeated use of Article 49.3 to pass crucial legislation without parliamentary approval underscores the limits of the current political system: can the government continue to function with such a fractured Parliament?
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